South County Report: The Race Is On (Again)

In the race to determine South County’s most powerful elected leader, voters now face a clear, and revealing, choice. 

Last week’s primary vote in the special election to replace former District 1 Supervisor Nora Vargas on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors whittled down a field of seven candidates to two decisive victors: Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre and Chula Vista Mayor John McCann. 

Both Aguirre and McCann far outdistanced their competition, together garnering almost three-quarters of all votes cast. McCann, a Republican, finished first with 28,065 votes, or 42 percent. Aguirre, a Democrat, won 32 percent of votes, easily besting two Democratic challengers, Chula Vista City Councilmember Carolina Chavez and San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno. 

Now that votes are counted – and the flood of election ads is (thankfully) over – what can we learn from last week’s results? And what can we expect as Aguirre and McCann begin their sprint toward the July 1 general election? 

Since last Tuesday, I’ve been talking to voters, the candidates, their campaign managers and other sources in the community about this high-stakes race. Here’s what I’ve learned. 

First lesson: Political ads are not all-powerful. 

Outside groups spent roughly $2 million leading up to last week’s vote, most of it supporting candidates who didn’t win or attacking candidates who won anyway. 

Aguirre alone was hit with more than $550,000 in negative advertising, much of it paid for by groups supporting Moreno. Aguirre won nearly three times as many votes as Moreno. One couple at an Imperial Beach polling station told me on Election Day that the blizzard of negative ads against Aguirre made them more likely to vote for her. If I’d paid for those ads, I’d ask for my money back. 

Second lesson: South County voters have widely divergent ideas about how to solve their region’s problems. 

Aguirre promised a “common-sense” approach to governing but she was also the progressive in this race. She cast herself as an advocate for “working people” and promised to protect tenants, build more affordable housing and work to solve the Tijuana River sewage crisis – a problem, she suggested, that would have been remedied long ago if it had afflicted a wealthier, less neglected region. 

McCann also cast himself as a “moderate.” But he nevertheless promised a sharp break from the Board of Supervisors’ current leftward tilt under Democratic leadership. He showcased his strong support for law enforcement, opposed new taxes and highlighted his record in Chula Vista of economic development, middle-class homebuilding and what he called a “tough love” approach to homelessness. 

The question now is which of those visions will attract voters who supported other candidates in the primary. Most of those voters went for Democrats, a possible boost for Aguirre. 

But those Democratic candidates – Moreno and Chavez – were very different from other San Diego County Democrats. Both opposed a recent environmental rule that makes it harder to build new housing in outlying parts of the county. Both opposed enhanced sanctuary protections for undocumented immigrants. And both won support from business leaders. 

In other words: Right now, this race is a toss-up. 

Third lesson: Each candidate has distinct strengths and weaknesses. 

Mason Herron, a partner at the political consulting firm Edgewater Strategies, created a nifty interactive map that breaks down election results by precincts. It shows some surprises. 

Aguirre, it turns out, did not get most of her votes from her hometown, Imperial Beach. She didn’t even win all precincts there. McCann won several, possibly in parts of town with higher numbers of Republican or military voters. 

Instead, Aguirre raked in votes far to the north, in wealthier, more highly educated areas of San Diego, including the trendy South Park neighborhood east of Balboa Park and precincts in downtown. Aguirre also won a few precincts in McCann’s home turf, in neighborhoods near Chula Vista’s southern border. 

Aguirre already previewed what she undoubtedly sees as McCann’s greatest weakness: The Republican “R” next to his name on the ballot. While votes were still being counted on election night, Aguirre issued a statement depicting the upcoming general election as a contest between “Democratic values” and “a Trump Republican agenda.” 

McCann on election night promised to stick to his record. But a few days later in an interview he pointed out that, under Democratic leadership, the County now faces a possible $140 million deficit. Expect him to turn the partisan tables on Aguirre, seeking to link her to what he likely will say is a record of Democratic fiscal mismanagement. 

Herron said one thing is certain. Since the winner of this race will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Board of Supervisors, interest in the race will be higher in July – and the money will flow. 

“You can create a narrative where the future of the county depends on this race,” Herron said. “That’s very different from dickering over flooding and sewage.” 

A Request to Rein in Requests 

National City Councilmember Luz Molina has a request for fellow Councilmembers: Fewer requests, please. 

Molina plans to propose new rules at tonight’s City Council meeting that would limit Councilmembers’ ability to make what are called “Policy 105 Requests” — essentially, requests asking the Council to consider a new issue or policy. 

The policy was initially envisioned as a way for Councilmembers to propose new ideas in a streamlined, two-step process. First, they ask whether fellow Councilmembers are interested enough in an issue to discuss it at a future meeting. Then they schedule the discussion. 

Recently, Molina said, Policy 105 Requests have become something else: An “unchecked process” that is being “misused” to promote Councilmembers’ pet issues, air grievances or stage “political stunts.” 

She cited as a recent example a request to open an investigation into a lawsuit filed last year that accused city officials of colluding to fast-track a controversial development proposal. The request, which was denied, far exceeded the Council’s authority and used up valuable staff time, Molina said. 

She also mentioned a request to consider adjusting lot size rules for households raising chickens. 

Molina’s proposed rules would require Councilmembers making Policy 105 requests to state more fully why they are making the request, explain why the issue is urgent and estimate how much city staff time would be required to research the issue. 

Councilmembers also could be required to persuade another Councilmember to co-sponsor their request. Recent requests, including the lawsuit investigation, have sparked bitter disputes at Council meetings. 

“I wish we could get to a better place,” Molina said of acrimony on the Council. “Working within the bounds of my job as a Councilmember to update the 105 Policy is one way to reduce some of the dysfunction.” 

Still Waiting on Port Ethics Reform 

Last year, state Assemblymember David Alvarez proposed new legislation that would have enacted major governance changes at the Port of San Diego. 

The bill, which would have beefed up ethics rules and mandated more money for conservation efforts, sailed through both houses of the state legislature – but then mysteriously died minutes before being sent to the governor’s desk for a signature. 

Alvarez was all set to reintroduce the bill this year, until he sat down in January with new Port CEO Scott Chadwick, who told Alvarez the Port planned to incorporate many of the bill’s suggestions in its own upcoming revision of Port ethics guidelines. 

Alvarez offered to hold off on his bill “to give this new CEO a chance,” said Chris Jonsmyr, a legislative and communications aid to Alvarez. Alvarez promised to wait for the Port’s new guidelines before reintroducing his bill. 

He’s still waiting. Jonsmyr said the new guidelines, promised for spring, still haven’t appeared on a Board of Port Commissioners agenda for approval. “I’m still waiting for the item to come to their agenda,” Jonsmyr said. 

Alvarez’s bill would require the Port to establish an independent ethics commission that would field complaints from the public, investigate and publish results for public review. The bill also would change how the Port removes commissioners from the Board of Port Commissioners. 

Jonsmyr said the Port already had enacted one of the bill’s provisions, a requirement to set aside a greater percentage of Port revenue for conservation efforts. 

Jonsmyr said Alvarez hasn’t forgotten Chadwick’s promise. “If we don’t see anything by the end of the year, we’ll bring up the bill again,” Jonsmyr said. “And maybe add things.” 

In response to a request for comment, a Port spokesperson said, “This is in progress. We don’t have any further information at this time.” 

ICYMI: Voice of San Diego has been covering some ongoing drama at the Chula Vista Elementary School District. First, there was a highly unorthodox election pitting one school board member against another – who ran while still occupying another seat on the board. Then there were dueling pay-to-play accusations between Superintendent Eduardo Reyes and former COO Jovanim Martinez. Last week, we took a closer look at close ties between a board member and the head of the district’s teachers’ union. The board meets this Wednesday at 6 p.m. at district headquarters, 84 E. J St. in Chula Vista. We’ll be there.