North County Report: Election Results Are Rolling In

Election Day has come and gone, and now it’s time to see how residents across North County voted in high-stakes races and critical ballot measures. 

Incumbents Trail in Competitive Encinitas and Oceanside Mayoral Races 

Mayoral races in Encinitas and Oceanside remained close as of Wednesday. So far, results show the incumbents from both cities slightly trailing behind their challengers.  

Encinitas Mayor Tony Kranz and Oceanside Mayor Esther Sanchez are up against sitting City Councilmembers, making these races particularly competitive. 

 At stake are competing visions for the future of housing development in both cities. 

Encinitas: In Encinitas, Mayor Kranz is facing Encinitas Councilmember Bruce Ehlers for the mayoral seat. Their most important difference is their approach to state housing laws.  

Kranz, having been through Encinitas’ history of defying state housing laws to no avail, believes it’s useless and costly to try to do so again. Ehlers, on the other hand, says he’s prepared to fight state housing laws that he says are impeding local control, despite the possibility of future litigation from developers and state officials. Read more about their housing views here. 

As of Wednesday, results showed Ehlers leading Kranz by four points. 

Oceanside: Democratic Mayor Sanchez is running for a second term and facing challenger Republican Ryan Keim, an Oceanside councilmember and current deputy mayor.  

Sanchez, an attorney and former public defender, has been on the council since 2000 and was first elected mayor in 2020, becoming the first woman and Latina to be elected mayor of Oceanside. Keim is a former Oceanside police officer. He was appointed to a vacancy on the council in 2019 and was elected for a full council term in 2020. 

The two have often been at odds, especially when it comes to housing. 

Sanchez has advocated for more affordable housing projects, but she’s often the only one on the council who opposes big development projects, siding with residents who are concerned about increased traffic or changing community character.   

Keim, on the other hand, has taken a more pro-growth stance, acknowledging that state law requires city officials to approve most viable housing projects.  

As of Wednesday, Keim was leading Sanchez by one point, but the race is still too close to call. 

Sales Tax Measures: Some Passed, Some Didn’t 

Escondido: It’s looking like voters in Escondido will have officially passed a 1 percent sales tax increase, two years after voters rejected a similar ballot measure in November 2022. 

Measure I took an early and wide lead Tuesday night, and as of Wednesday, the “yes” vote was leading by 19 points, accounting for more than 59 percent of the votes so far. 

The measure will increase the city’s sales tax rate by 1 percent for the next 20 years. The current sales tax rate in Escondido is 7.75 percent, which is among the lowest in San Diego County.  

It’s projected to generate around $28 million per year in revenue, which the measure’s supporters say, could help close or reduce the city’s ongoing structural budget deficit, which is projected to reach an average of $18 million each year over the next 20 years.  

Voice of San Diego has previously reported on how Escondido’s budget deficit has impacted city services and community programs. Read that story here. 

Oceanside: A measure to extend Oceanside’s existing half-percent sales tax increase will likely pass by a wide margin. The “yes” votes for Measure X were leading by 39 points on Wednesday, accounting for 69 percent of the votes. 

Oceanside voters first approved Measure X in 2018, which raised the city’s sales tax rate from 7.75 percent to 8.25 percent. The measure was set to expire in 2026, but now, with voter approval, it will be extended for another 10 years. 

So far, the measure has generated roughly $100 million for Oceanside. I previously wrote about how that money has been spent so far, read that story here.  

Encinitas: A proposed 1 percent sales tax increase in Encinitas, has, so far, not been so lucky. 

The “no” votes for Measure K have so far been leading by more than four points, accounting for 52 percent of the votes as of Wednesday.  

The measure proposes increasing the city’s current 7.75 percent sales tax rate to 8.75 percent. It has been projected to generate about $15.4 million each year for the city, and though the measure doesn’t specify how the money would be spent, city leaders have said it would partially be used to address an infrastructure backlog of roughly $257 million.  

This would include aging storm drains, bridges, sidewalks and public facilities. I previously wrote about Encinitas’ plan to finally improve the existing stormwater infrastructure in Leucadia Roadside Park, a neighborhood in Encinitas. 

San Marcos: A 1 percent sales tax increase in San Marcos is also likely going to pass, with “yes” votes leading by almost 20 points as of Wednesday and accounting for more than 59 percent of the votes. 

Measure Q is projected to bring in an estimated $20 million in yearly revenue.  

City leaders are hoping the new revenue would help with the city’s budget struggles. The city had to dip into its reserves to close a $3.8 million budget gap in last year and had to make cuts to city departments to balance this year’s budget.  

The current sales tax rate in San Marcos is 7.75 percent.  

That One Vista City Council Race 

An incumbent Vista City Council candidate whose opponent was recruited and endorsed by Vista’s mayor is slightly leading in her bid for reelection. 

Two City Council seats are up for election in Vista: One is being vacated by Republican Councilmember Joe Green, who is not seeking re-election, and the other is currently held by Democratic Councilmember Katie Melendez, who is seeking re-election.  

Melendez is being challenged by Republican business owner Denisse Barragan. Barragan is endorsed by Vista’s mayor, John Franklin, who is a Republican.  

Voice of San Diego previously reported that Franklin has been especially invested in this race, aiming to see Melendez—whom he has clashed with repeatedly over the years because of stark political differences—unseated and replaced by someone from his own party. 

But Melendez is leading Barragan by five points as of Wednesday, receiving more than 52 percent of the votes so far. 

Republican candidate Jeff Fox, who is vying for Green’s vacated seat, is defeating his opponent, Democrat Anthony White, by almost 30 points. 

The outcome of the election could change the political dynamics of the council, which currently has a Democratic majority, but if results continue on this trend, the political makeup of the council will remain the same. 

In Other Election News 

• In the 75th Assembly District race, it appears Republican Carl DeMaio will likely defeathis opponent Republican Andrew Hayes. DeMaio is leading Hayes by more than 20 points as of Wednesday . (Voice of San Diego) 
• In Escondido City Council races, incumbent City Councilmember Christian Garcia and newcomer Judy Fitzgerald took early and wide leads over their opponents, both defeating their challengers by more than 30 points. Fitzgerald will fill the District 4 seat vacated by incumbent Councilmember Mike Morasco. (Union-Tribune) 
• In San Marcos City Council races, incumbent Ed Musgrove and newcomer Danielle LeBlang maintained significant leads over their opponents in City Council races as of Wednesday and are poised to win. (Union-Tribune)